Mesoscale Discussion 0544
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0107 PM CDT Wed May 05 2021

   Areas affected...east-central CO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051807Z - 052030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts (60-65 mph) and marginally severe
   hail (1.0-1.25 inches in diameter) are possible with the stronger
   storms later this afternoon (2pm-6pm MDT).

   DISCUSSION...Visible and water-vapor satellite imagery show a
   mid-level shortwave trough moving southeast through northern
   portions of CO while a developing area of convection slowly
   intensifies near the CO Front Range.  The activity near Denver and
   Ft. Collins as of 12pm MDT, will gradually move southeastward with
   additional storm development likely to develop within a cumulus
   field near the Palmer Divide.  The latest forecast soundings
   indicate convective temperatures have been breached with
   temperatures in the middle 50s F.  Upwards of 500 J/kg of MLCAPE is
   also noted in the forecast soundings (Limon, CO in particular) with
   an inverted-v profile and 35-kt effective shear.  The steep lapse
   rate profile will support the transfer of stronger gusts to the
   surface once mature thunderstorm cores become established and a
   marginally severe hail risk could accompany the strongest updrafts. 
   Given the overall marginally severe intensity/coverage of a few
   severe storms, a severe thunderstorm watch is not currently
   anticipated.

   ..Smith.. 05/05/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   37930371 39460472 40060415 39860333 39350213 38660183
               37880263 37930371