ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 032316 COR
SPC MCD 032316 COR
DEZ000-MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-032345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0504
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

Areas affected...Portions of Maryland...Virginia...and Washington
DC.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 032316Z - 032345Z

CORRECTED FOR COUNTY REFERENCE

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated risk of damaging winds or a brief tornado will
be possible over the next couple of hours along a diffuse warm
front. A weather watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery and storm reports showed a small
supeprcell over Federick Co. Maryland had intensified over the last
45 minutes. SPC mesoanalysis indicates this storm is located along a
diffuse surface warm front stretching from eastern Ohio toward the
northern Chesapeake Bay. To the south of the front, surface
temperatures in the mid 70s F and dewpoints in the lower to middle
60s F are support MUCAPE of 800-1200 J/kg. Enhanced mid-level flow
ahead of a shortwave trough across the Carolinas is contributing to
30-40 kt of effective shear as analyzed by local VAD VWPs.
Observational trend suggest that severe weather in the form of
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this
storm as it tracks east along the front over the next 1 to 2 hours.
Given the limited spatial area and expected longevity of any severe
risk as the storm moves into cooler air near the bay, a weather
watch is unlikely.

..Lyons/Thompson.. 05/03/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   39317762 39257795 39477795 39727755 39677697 39647614
            39477571 39187595 39077645 39197751 39317762 

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