Mesoscale Discussion 0504
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0616 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of Maryland...Virginia...and Washington
   DC.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032316Z - 032345Z

   CORRECTED FOR COUNTY REFERENCE

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated risk of damaging winds or a brief tornado will
   be possible over the next couple of hours along a diffuse warm
   front. A weather watch is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery and storm reports showed a small
   supeprcell over Federick Co. Maryland had intensified over the last
   45 minutes. SPC mesoanalysis indicates this storm is located along a
   diffuse surface warm front stretching from eastern Ohio toward the
   northern Chesapeake Bay. To the south of the front, surface
   temperatures in the mid 70s F and dewpoints in the lower to middle
   60s F are support MUCAPE of 800-1200 J/kg. Enhanced mid-level flow
   ahead of a shortwave trough across the Carolinas is contributing to
   30-40 kt of effective shear as analyzed by local VAD VWPs.
   Observational trend suggest that severe weather in the form of
   damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this
   storm as it tracks east along the front over the next 1 to 2 hours.
   Given the limited spatial area and expected longevity of any severe
   risk as the storm moves into cooler air near the bay, a weather
   watch is unlikely.

   ..Lyons/Thompson.. 05/03/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39317762 39257795 39477795 39727755 39677697 39647614
               39477571 39187595 39077645 39197751 39317762