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Mesoscale Discussion 390 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0390
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021
Areas affected...Northeast Colorado
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 152051Z - 160045Z
SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow, including rates up to 2 inches per
hour, may develop near the I-76 corridor of northeast Colorado
through 5-8 PM MDT.
DISCUSSION...A broad mid-level low is in the process of gradually
shifting east of the Great Basin into the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies.
As this continues through late afternoon and early evening,
large-scale ascent is forecast to develop and intensify across the
Platte Basin/Interstate 76 vicinity. Forcing for ascent will be
supported by strengthening lower/mid tropospheric warm advection,
beneath increasingly difluent upper flow. Latest model forecast
soundings suggest lift will become maximized within and and above
favorably cold mid-levels supportive of large dendritic ice crystal
growth. At the same time, near surface winds are forecast to
gradually back to a northeasterly component, contributing to weak
low-level cold advection.
As this occurs, moderate to heavy snow in excess of 1 inch per hour
appears likely to develop. Recent runs of the Rapid Refresh have
indicated the development of rates approaching 2 inches per hour are
possible across an area focused around Fort Morgan, Sterling and
Akron as early as 23-00Z.
..Kerr.. 04/15/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40420473 40980367 41120284 40550243 39830373 39880499
40420473
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