Mesoscale Discussion 0335
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0458 PM CDT Thu Apr 08 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of central TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 082158Z - 090000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may develop early this evening, with mainly
   an isolated large hail threat. A watch is not currently expected,
   but trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite and radar imagery show
   towering cumulus developing near the intersection of a surface
   dryline and warm front in central TX. Although large-scale ascent
   remains nebulous across this region, there appears to be just enough
   low-level convergence to support a sustained updraft. Indeed, one
   cell has recently produced CG lightning flashes. Steep mid-level
   lapse rates and increasing low-level moisture are supporting strong
   instability across this region. A long, straight hodograph above the
   boundary layer is fostering 50+ kt of deep-layer shear, which will
   easily support a supercell. Isolated instances of large hail should
   be the primary concern, but increasing low-level moisture and a
   favorable shear profile in the 0-1 km layer suggest some potential
   for surface-based storms this evening. At this point, the overall
   coverage of storms appears rather uncertain, and the severe threat
   may remain quite isolated. Therefore, watch issuance is not
   currently expected, but radar trends will be monitored.

   ..Gleason/Grams.. 04/08/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32219818 32159774 31969743 31649742 31159764 31079839
               31259859 31439868 31819873 32049861 32219818