ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 272042 
SPC MCD 272042 
TNZ000-ARZ000-272215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0282
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

Areas affected...Portions of extreme eastern AR into western/middle
TN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 59...

Valid 272042Z - 272215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 59 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes and large hail should increase
across parts of western/middle TN through the remainder of the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Based on recent radar and visible satellite imagery, it
appears that robust updraft development is imminent across parts of
southwestern TN. VWP from KNQA shows around 25-30 kt of 0-1 km
shear, and nearly 200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH. With 50-60+ kt of
effective bulk shear and 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE present along and
south of a warm front, supercells still appear likely. The best
tornado threat across Tornado Watch 59 will probably focus across
southwestern TN and vicinity over the next couple of hours in the
vicinity of the warm front, as the greatest low-level shear is
present there. Large hail, potentially greater than 2 inches in
diameter, also remains a concern given the moderate to strong
instability and steep mid-level lapse rates.

..Gleason.. 03/27/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...

LAT...LON   35028875 35029022 35469029 35788971 35918879 35928726
            35498707 35058739 35028875 

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