ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 252252 
SPC MCD 252252 
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-260015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0552 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

Areas affected...Western/central KY...Western/middle TN...Far
northern MS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 51...

Valid 252252Z - 260015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 51 continues.

SUMMARY...An increase in the severe threat is possible this evening,
with all hazards possible.

DISCUSSION...Convection has increased in coverage and intensity over
the last hour from far northern MS into western/middle TN and
western/central KY, in advance of a powerful midlevel shortwave
trough over MO and a deepening surface low moving into southern IL.
MLCAPE across the region ranges from around 500 J/kg in the cooler
airmass across KY to over 1000 J/kg into TN/northern MS. Very strong
effective shear in excess of 60 kt (noted in objective mesoanalyses
and the 21Z OHX sounding) will support the potential for organized
storm structures, including the potential for bowing segments
capable of damaging wind gusts, and supercells capable of hail
(especially with any left-moving cells) and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes. 

The coverage of the severe threat remains uncertain across this
region, as the strong shear and very dry midlevel air moving in from
the west may cause convection to struggle in an environment where
buoyancy is relatively limited. However, any sustained convection
within this environment will pose a severe threat through the
evening.

..Dean.. 03/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   34978961 36438900 37328843 37668796 37748734 37778665
            37828589 37408554 35448682 35008819 34858901 34858942
            34978961 

NNNN