ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 222124 
SPC MCD 222124 
TXZ000-NMZ000-222230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0230
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0424 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

Areas affected...portions of the Texas South Plains and far
southeastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 222124Z - 222230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for downbursts beneath relatively high-based
storms is possible through sunset, though a WW issuance is currently
unanticipated.

DISCUSSION...An area of surface heating beneath a mid-level
disturbance has generated enough atmospheric instability for
lightning-producing convection over the past hour.  An observation
very near this convection indicated a wind gust to 59 knots in
southeastern NM over the past hour, though some of this may be
locally enhanced by a cold front migrating through the region in
addition to nearby convection.  The storms are in a steep-lapse-rate
environment (around 8C/km) with strong deep shear (around 50 knots),
though low-level shear is relatively weak.  The late of low-level
moisture also suggests that nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization
should result in a decreased severe threat as convection becomes
increasingly elevated.  In the near term, a risk for isolated
damaging wind gusts and hail will exist.

..Cook/Guyer.. 03/22/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33860353 34170318 34240231 34250180 34040126 33540097
            33080118 32790196 32830263 33050322 33220353 33420355
            33860353 

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