ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 170341 
SPC MCD 170341 
TXZ000-170745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0105
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0941 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

Areas affected...Parts of central Texas

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 170341Z - 170745Z

SUMMARY...Light to occasionally moderate precipitation will
overspread parts of central Texas, roughly between Austin, Waco and
College Station through Midnight-3 AM CST.  This may initiate as
sleet in most areas, before changing over to freezing rain with
accumulating ice probable on most exposed surfaces.

DISCUSSION...A developing band of precipitation now spreading
east-northeast of the Edwards Plateau appears largely forced by
lower/mid tropospheric  frontogenetic forcing,  Models suggest that
this will be maintained across parts of central Texas (particularly
near/northwest of Austin into areas between Waco and College
Station) into and through the 06-09Z time frame, although there may
be some fluctuations in intensity.

Based on forecast soundings, lift appears generally maximized within
the dendritic growth zone, but temperatures above freezing within
the 850-700 mb layer are allowing for falling precipitation to melt.
 East-north of the Edwards Plateau, cooling within this initially
unsaturated layer, due to melting and evaporation, may support
relatively minor accumulations of sleet.  However, as elevated warm
advection continues across the region on south-southwesterly flow,
warming and deepening of the warm layer is expected to allow for a
changeover to rain.  

Although rain rates may remain relatively light to occasionally
moderate in intensity, with surface temperatures mostly in the upper
teens to mid 20s F, ice may quickly accumulate on most exposed
surfaces.

..Kerr.. 02/17/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30519882 30979895 31269862 31429699 31359599 30579601
            30289782 30269870 30519882 

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