Mesoscale Discussion 1619
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0529 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

   Areas affected...Southeastern Iowa...Southern Wisconsin...and
   Northern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466...

   Valid 282229Z - 290000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong-to-severe storms across east-central Iowa and along
   the Wisconsin-Illinois border continue to advance southeastward
   along/ahead of the cold front.  A downstream watch is possible and
   convective trends will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Ascent associated with an approaching midlevel
   shortwave trough and surface convergence along a cold front have led
   to the development of a broken line of strong-to-severe
   thunderstorms from southwestern Wisconsin into southeastern Iowa. 
   With northwesterly deep-layer shear largely orthogonal to the cold
   front, storms have remained semi-discrete to this point.  As the
   storms continue to advance to the east-southeast, the effective bulk
   shear (~35 knots per mesoanalysis) may be slightly less supportive
   of organized updrafts, but MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg should be
   sufficient to support a continued threat of severe hail and damaging
   winds until the boundary layer stabilizes this evening.  Convective
   trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a downstream
   watch.

   ..Jirak/Guyer.. 08/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   41209300 41279254 41559159 41969074 42388996 42488928
               42758856 42478811 41978822 41578872 41228929 41028995
               40789065 40669147 40659194 40579283 40649307 40879333
               41209300