Mesoscale Discussion 1464
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0729 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

   Areas affected...southern Lower Michigan...southern and eastern
   Indiana...western Ohio...southern Illinois...southeastern
   Missouri...and parts of western Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428...430...431...

   Valid 110029Z - 110200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428, 430,
   431 continues.

   SUMMARY...Risk for locally damaging winds continues with the large,
   bowing MCS crossing the Midwest/Ohio Valley.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows the still-well-organized bowing
   MCS crossing the Midwest/Ohio Valley region.  Some weakening has
   been noted over the past 1 to 2 hours with northern portions of the
   line -- i.e. lower Michigan, eastern Indiana, and now western Ohio. 
   Here, weaker instability is indicated with eastward extent.  Thus,
   while locally gusty/damaging winds will likely persist with stronger
   updrafts within the convective band, risk should remain
   limited/isolated for the next few hours, before further weakening
   occurs.

   Meanwhile, a pool of moderate mixed-layer CAPE (3000 to 3500 J/kg)
   extends from southeastern Missouri into southern portions of
   Illinois and Indiana and the western half of Kentucky.  Here, the
   convective band remains stronger, moving southeastward toward the
   Ohio River at this time.  However, the deep-layer wind field weakens
   with southward extent, which should temper the overall severe risk
   somewhat, despite favorable instability.  Still, locally damaging
   winds will likely continue for at least the next few hours as
   convection gradually spreads into/across the northern/western
   Kentucky vicinity.

   ..Goss.. 08/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...
   ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   42868472 41708342 38678400 37088655 36668996 37689082
               39098901 39418624 40638520 41818488 42868472