Mesoscale Discussion 1446
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0642 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

   Areas affected...Southern WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101142Z - 101345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Threat for large hail will continue across southern WI,
   and the threat for damaging wind gusts may increase as well. Trends
   are being monitored for possible watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Cluster of thunderstorms that has persisted most of the
   night over southeast MN has recently shown signs of better
   organization and quicker forward motion. Recent KARX radar imagery
   suggests much of this activity currently remains behind the storm
   outflow. However, storm development has occurred along the outflow
   across the southern flank of the cluster, suggesting the potential
   that the cluster may begin to become rooted closer to the surface.
   If that occurs, the potential for damaging wind gusts will increase.
   Confidence in that scenario is low, but trends will be monitored
   closely. Additionally, regardless of whether or not the damaging
   wind threat increases, the potential for large hail will persist.
   The downstream environment is strongly buoyant, with recent
   mesoanalysis and RAP soundings depicting steep mid-level lapse rates
   and MUCAPE approaching 3000 J/kg. Convective outlook probabilities
   will be increased downstream of this system with the upcoming 13Z
   Convective Outlook and trends are being monitored closely for
   potential watch issuance.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 08/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

   LAT...LON   44189120 44429041 44148858 43038884 43389106 44189120