Mesoscale Discussion 1267
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0615 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020

   Areas affected...Minnesota and north Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 382...

   Valid 182315Z - 190015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 382
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe thunderstorm will remain capable of
   producing very large hail and potentially a tornado to the north of
   the Minneapolis metro area. Farther north, an increase in severe
   potential is expected through the evening.

   DISCUSSION...An isolated, surface-based supercell has developed
   across southern Minnesota, just north of Minneapolis, over the last
   hour. This supercell is within a moderately sheared (35-50 knots
   deep-layer shear) and extremely unstable airmass (CAPE approaching
   5000 J/kg). Although synpotic-scale low-level flow remains fairly
   weak and slightly veered, recent observations from within the
   proximity inflow region of the supercell suggest a backing of the
   low-level flow. This would suggest modification of the low-level
   kinematic field around the thunderstorm and a slightly more
   favorable tornado environment with this supercell. Regardless of
   tornadic potential, the extremely instability and shear will support
   very large hail.

   Farther north, thunderstorms are moving across north-central
   Minnesota. These storms are beginning to move into a more favorable
   thermodynamic environment and thus the potential for large hail and
   damaging winds will increase over the next few hours.

   ..Marsh.. 07/18/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   44889529 45439522 45429515 46389507 46399475 46819480
               46829470 47419463 47409447 47839443 47859381 47939370
               47889302 48629297 48259228 48379221 48359210 48069155
               48069128 48259088 48089072 48129006 48008995 47998943
               47898946 47878959 46659043 46559039 46469017 46399014
               46308992 45988988 45969000 45419004 45379091 45309093
               45299151 45219153 45219217 44899208 44859274 44579274
               44469309 44529329 44519391 44479393 44459478 44749547
               44879550 44889529