Mesoscale Discussion 1265
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0332 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020

   Areas affected...Northern Lower MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 182032Z - 182200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong/severe thunderstorms are possible into the
   early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently intensified across far
   northern lower MI, in the vicinity of a outflow boundary and in
   advance of a shortwave trough moving into eastern Ontario and an MCV
   moving across Lake Michigan. Strong heating has allowed for moderate
   instability (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) to develop near/south of the
   outflow boundary, with midlevel flow sufficient to support effective
   shear of 30-40 kt. The strongest cells will be capable of large hail
   and locally damaging wind gusts, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled
   out as storms interact with the outflow boundary. 

   Uncertainty remains regarding the coverage of the threat, with the
   immediate threat confined to areas near the boundary, but if further
   development is noted southward into a larger portion of northern
   lower MI, then watch issuance will be considered.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 07/18/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...APX...

   LAT...LON   45218574 45468561 45598516 45608484 45568413 45398351
               45058328 44748330 44498408 44638493 44748531 44898565
               45218574