Mesoscale Discussion 2218
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0757 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

   Areas affected...Southeast Mississippi and western Alabama

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 702...

   Valid 170157Z - 170330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 702 continues.

   SUMMARY...The tornado threat continues in the short term before
   storm mergers and a less favorable environment with eastward extent
   causes the tornado threat to wane.

   DISCUSSION...Several supercells are ongoing in southeast Mississippi
   and western Alabama. At least one of these supercells (southern
   Sumter county) is likely still producing a tornado as of 150Z. These
   storms remain in a favorable environment slightly ahead of the
   linear convection along the front, but this line will gradually
   overtake the convection within the next 1 to 2 hours which should
   lower the tornado threat. In addition, as these storms move east,
   they will encounter a gradually more stable airmass (250 J/kg MLCAPE
   at BMX 00Z RAOB). This will also assist in the reduction of the
   tornado threat. Despite the less favorable environment with time,
   there is still a significant tornado threat in the short term with
   MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and SRH around 350 to 400 m2/s2 per RAP
   mesoanalysis.

   ..Bentley.. 12/17/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

   LAT...LON   31768947 32068913 32538847 32748801 32778735 32588708
               32258710 31998794 31758874 31578929 31658956 31768947