Mesoscale Discussion 2111
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0217 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019

   Areas affected...portions of central/southern TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241917Z - 242115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms, a few strong, could produce marginally
   severe hail and locally strong wind gusts across parts of central
   and southern Texas through this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Showers in the vicinity of a southeastward-advancing
   cold front over the Concho Valley/Edwards Plateau vicinity continue
   to deepen/intensify this afternoon. Latest mesoanalysis and modified
   forecast soundings suggest some weak capping is still present across
   the area, but this should continue to quickly erode over the next
   couple of hours. As this occurs, weak to moderate instability and
   marginal effective shear should allow for thunderstorms to quickly
   develop and organize into semi-discrete cells and/or clusters. While
   vertical shear is not particularly strong below 500 mb, directional
   shear will support weakly rotating updrafts. In the presence of
   modest midlevel lapse rates, this could allow for strongest cells to
   produce marginally severe hail. Strong heating ahead of the front
   has led to steep low level lapse rates while PW values are
   approaching 1.5 inches. This in turn could foster a few strong
   downdrafts and gusty, locally damaging wind could occur with any
   convection that remains ahead of the cold front. However, storm
   motion is expected to be roughly parallel to the front, and storms
   could quickly become elevated as they are undercut by the cold
   front. In conjunction with rather weak 0-3 km winds, this should act
   to limit severe wind gusts. In general, the severe threat should
   remain marginal/sporadic across portions of central/southern TX into
   early evening.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 10/24/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   27829993 28090022 28400044 29030081 29540118 30500015
               31219905 31519849 31639799 31459754 31179730 30609720
               29849759 28939833 28089948 27829993