Mesoscale Discussion 1831
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0744 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

   Areas affected...southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri and extreme
   northern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 220044Z - 220245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated downburst winds and some hail will remain
   possible next couple hours as storms develop through southeast
   Kansas and southwest Missouri early this evening. Due to the
   expected short duration of the threat, a WW will probably not be
   needed.

   DISCUSSION...Storms that initiated along a quasistationary front
   across east central KS have recently undergone an intensity increase
   with isolated wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH reported during the
   past hour. Based on latest objective analysis, storms are
   approaching a corridor of stronger instability in warm sector with
   temperatures around 90F and low 70s F dewpoints supporting 3000+
   MLCAPE. Recent VWP from Wichita KS indicate veering winds in the
   lowest 2 km and 30-35 kt sfc-6 km shear. Storms will continue
   developing southeast this evening, primarily along and north of
   convectively reinforced front. The downstream environment should
   support mostly multicells, but possibly a couple transient supercell
   structures with isolated damaging wind and hail possible through
   03Z.

   ..Dial/Grams.. 08/22/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37799768 38119588 38629357 37999308 37129467 36909663
               37159752 37799768