Mesoscale Discussion 1663
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019

   Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 071650Z - 071815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected through the afternoon
   and evening. A watch is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have started to form along a surface cold front
   in central North Carolina. The airmass ahead of these storms is
   already very unstable with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s
   and temperatures approaching 90 yielding MLCAPE around 2000 to 2500
   J/kg. Mid-level flow around 40 knots will provide sufficient shear
   for storm organization. Expect one or more multicell clusters/line
   segments to move across eastern North Carolina and southeast
   Virginia through the afternoon and early evening. While mid-level
   lapse rates are quite weak (~ 6 C/km), expect storms to have some
   hail threat given the expected storm organization in a very unstable
   environment. Low-level flow will be a limiting factor to wind
   damage, but internal thermodynamic processes in the hot and unstable
   airmass will support downdrafts that will be capable of damaging
   winds.

   ..Bentley/Goss.. 08/07/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35888010 36507916 37397858 38137770 38467684 38447634
               38167605 37847591 36817599 36117557 35417547 35137588
               34707676 34317760 34137797 34167840 34527986 34688033
               35158039 35888010