Mesoscale Discussion 1482
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0610 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of western Upper MI into far north-central
   WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152310Z - 160045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated strong/gusty wind threat may exist across
   parts of western Upper MI into far north-central WI this evening.
   Watch issuance appears unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...A line of convection that has developed ahead of a
   surface cold front in association with a low-amplitude shortwave
   trough over MN and southern Ontario will continue eastward across
   western Lake Superior. With generally 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
   (locally stronger) and 25-40 kt of mid-level westerly flow present
   over this region, there is some concern that the line will be able
   to maintain its intensity as it crosses Lake Superior and
   subsequently moves over parts of western Upper MI and far
   north-central WI over the next couple of hours. The best threat area
   does appear to be spatially confined to a small part of western
   Upper MI in the wake of earlier convection now over northeastern WI
   and northward-moving outflow. Still, mainly an isolated strong/gusty
   wind threat could exist through the evening where diurnal heating
   has been able to steepen low-level lapse rates. Although watch
   issuance appears unlikely at this time, observational trends will
   continue to be monitored.

   ..Gleason/Grams.. 07/15/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...

   LAT...LON   46518725 46088758 45888815 45888928 46318991 46649029
               46838993 47418847 47568786 47488755 47088743 46518725