Mesoscale Discussion 1423
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0301 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2019

   Areas affected...southeastern North Dakota and far west-central
   Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 092001Z - 092200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A brief tornado may occur with convection migrating
   eastward across this region during the remainder of the afternoon. 
   A WW issuance is not anticipated due to the isolated nature of the
   threat.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar/satellite imagery indicates a broken line
   of convection about 30 W through 30 SW of JMS, with more isolated
   convection east of there between JMS and FAR.  These storms were
   located along a weak warm front, with surface heating along and
   south of this front resulting in gradually increasing, surface-based
   instability near the front (around 1000-2500 J/kg MUCAPE).  Though
   mid-level flow is a bit modest (around 30 knots), backed low-level
   flow near the front was contributing to enhanced deep shear (around
   40 knots) and low-layer helicity (150-300 m2/s2 effective SRH),
   which may support updraft rotation with cells favorably interacting
   with boundary.  This may result in a brief tornado, especially as
   surface heating/destabilization continues across the front.  

   The localized, isolated nature of this threat will preclude a WW
   issuance at this time, although convective trends will be monitored.

   ..Cook/Grams.. 07/09/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47149884 47279803 47199686 46879598 46349576 45969596
               45979699 46069780 46239858 46549892 46879908 47149884