Mesoscale Discussion 1393
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1248 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of New England and the Mid Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061748Z - 062015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds will be possible with storms
   through late this afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have formed this afternoon across parts
   of southern New England into the Mid Atlantic along a surface trough
   preceding a cold front. Strong daytime heating has allowed surface
   temperatures to warm generally into the mid 80s to lower 90s for
   much of this region. Related steepening of low-level lapse rates to
   around 7.5-8.5 C/km should occur by peak heating in the next couple
   of hours. Compared to northern New England, low to mid-level flow
   rapidly decreases with southward extent into the Mid-Atlantic. Area
   VWPs show generally no more than 15-25 kt of flow in the 0-6 km AGL
   layer, which will likely limit thunderstorm organization. But with
   scattered to numerous convective coverage expected through this
   evening, at least some potential for strong/gusty downdraft winds
   should exist with these thunderstorms given the moderate to locally
   strong instability that will be present. A relatively greater (but
   still marginal/isolated) wind potential may occur across parts of
   MA/CT/RI and vicinity where slightly stronger mid-level flow of
   20-25 kt will exist. Regardless, current expectations are for
   thunderstorms to remain loosely organized at best, and Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch issuance remains unlikely this afternoon.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/06/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
   RNK...

   LAT...LON   39157458 38167524 37317603 37297745 37667861 37817899
               38267951 38557951 39717892 40517880 41047864 41167818
               41107704 41347595 41517532 41947434 42727324 42667125
               42847082 42687060 42057056 41517094 41037188 40747281
               40577376 39767414 39157458