Mesoscale Discussion 1321
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0520 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

   Areas affected...Northeast Iowa...southwest Wisconsin...northwest
   Illinois

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 468...

   Valid 302220Z - 010015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 468
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat for WW468 continues with severe
   wind/hail as the main threats. Storms may push/develop south and
   east of the current watch and a local watch expansion may be
   necessary.

   DISCUSSION...A MCS continues to move south/southeast along an
   instability gradient across northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin.
   With 3000-4500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the western portions of the
   MCS, storms should continue to propagate/develop south/southeastward
   into the evening. Given the storm mode and steep low-level lapse
   rates ahead of the storms, severe wind is the most likely severe
   threat. Large hail is also possible given relatively steep mid-level
   lapse rates, the aforementioned large MLCAPE, and being on the
   periphery of marginal effective bulk shear (30-35 knots). 

   Eastern portions of the MCS still has good inflow from the
   southwest, but it will encounter a more stable airmass that was
   convectively overturned by the previous MCS. However, there should
   be corridor just outside of the current watch in northwest Illinois
   and possibly southwest Wisconsin where the environment could support
   severe storms. Additionally, given the current structure of the MCS
   and instability ahead of it, it may move south of the watch in the
   coming hours. Due to these likely scenarios, a local watch expansion
   or a small new watch may be necessary.

   ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 06/30/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   43359355 43249265 43129217 43089172 43109138 43229090
               43329024 43178964 42718949 42248945 41608971 41469012
               41429074 41469197 41679275 41879312 42069336 42279345
               42779358 43089356 43359355