Mesoscale Discussion 1286
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1055 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

   Areas affected...Southern IA...Northern MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 281555Z - 281800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms should spread south into northern
   Missouri over the next few hours. Locally damaging winds and large
   hail are the expected threats.

   DISCUSSION...Long-lived cluster of convection that developed over
   southern MN/WI region last night continues to spread south with some
   southwest propagation along the western flank. Well-defined outflow
   is racing ahead of this feature (10-20mi) at roughly 27kt,
   indicative of established cold pool. Strong boundary-layer heating
   is observed ahead of the complex into northern MO and low-level
   lapse rates are steepening. As CINH weakens, further propagation
   along the instability axis is expected. Additionally, northerly flow
   aloft, along the back side of a weak low noted over northern MS,
   will contribute to this activity spreading across northern MO.

   ..Darrow/Grams.. 06/28/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39389421 41119334 40929167 39149232 39389421