Mesoscale Discussion 1162
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0317 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

   Areas affected...middle through northeast Tennessee and southeast
   Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 202017Z - 202145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms may produce a few instances of hail and strong wind
   gusts from middle through northeast Tennessee into southeast
   Kentucky next couple hours. The duration and overall magnitude of
   the threat is not expected to be sufficient for a WW.

   DISCUSSION...Storms are developing from southeast KY into northern
   middle TN along and east of a cold front and in association with
   ascent attending a progressive shortwave trough. Extensive morning
   clouds were slow to erode and have limited boundary layer recovery
   with temperatures still in the 70s F in most areas, limiting MLCAPE
   to generally below 1000 J/kg. A mid-level jet situated within the
   base of the trough is resulting in 35-40 kt effective bulk shear
   across TN, and some marginal supercell structures with modest
   mid-level updraft rotation have been observed. Activity will
   continue east southeast next couple hours, posing some risk for
   locally strong wind gusts and hail. However, storms should begin a
   weakening trend by 22Z as they encounter a more stable boundary
   layer toward the southern Appalachians.

   ..Dial/Hart.. 06/20/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   35998654 37168445 37018312 36258283 35568458 35488605
               35998654