Mesoscale Discussion 1120
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0222 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

   Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...Northeast New
   Mexico...Southwest Kansas...the Oklahoma Panhandle...and far
   northern Texas Panhandle.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 181922Z - 182045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected through the
   afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible.

   DISCUSSION...A combination of low-level upslope flow and terrain
   induced circulation has led to convective development over the
   higher terrain of the Colorado Front Range and the Baton Mesa.
   Through the afternoon, these storms are expected to move off of the
   higher terrain into the Plains. Currently, this area is only weakly
   unstable (500 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), but additional heating through
   the afternoon will lead to more moderate instability ~1500 J/kg.
   Effective shear around 30 knots will support isolated supercell
   structures. Mid-level lapse rates are around 7.5-8 C/km (per RAP
   mesoanalysis) which will support a threat for large hail (especially
   initially when storm mode will be more discrete) before the threat
   becomes more of a damaging wind threat as storms congeal.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/18/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   38980542 39000457 38770305 38160196 38130087 38050026
               37250017 36690041 36130108 35860178 35900262 35950438
               36690513 38490552 38980542