Mesoscale Discussion 1065
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0846 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of southeastern Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 150146Z - 150345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue increasing in
   coverage over portions of southeastern Nebraska this evening. These
   storms will pose at least a risk for isolated large hail and
   damaging wind gusts through the evening. Uncertainty regarding
   coverage of strong/severe convection should preclude a Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch.

   DISCUSSION...Radar/Satellite trends indicate thunderstorms are
   increasing along/near a remnant frontal boundary over portions of
   southeastern Nebraska. While strong buoyancy exists over the area
   (2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE), this area remains on the northern
   periphery of the stronger mid-level flow -- with around 30 knots of
   effective bulk shear per KOAX sounding and mesoanalysis data. While
   periodic bouts of large hail and damaging wind are possible, the
   current thinking is that the overall coverage of strong/severe
   convection should remain limited enough to preclude a Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch.

   ..Elliott/Guyer.. 06/15/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...

   LAT...LON   40749833 40969796 41089741 41249673 41199640 41059604
               40629594 40309616 40109646 40019725 40039830 40159846
               40549858 40749833