Mesoscale Discussion 0954
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0536 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2019

   Areas affected...Northern Arkansas and far eastern OK.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 022236Z - 022330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated storms have started to develop in northwest
   Arkansas. These storms may pose a threat for large hail and damaging
   winds.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have developed in northwest Arkansas in
   a pocket of upper 60s to near 70F dewpoints. RAP mesoanalysis shows
   MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and effective shear around 30 to 35 knots.
   This would support multicell and marginal supercell structures.
   Mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km (per RAP mesoanalysis) will
   support large hail as the primary threat, but an occasional severe
   wind gust is possible from these storms as well.

   The isolated nature of the storms and the limited duration of the
   threat will preclude the need for a severe thunderstorm watch in
   this area.

   ..Bentley/Grams.. 06/02/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36499459 36609344 36309196 35669156 35379169 35219216
               35339352 35619488 36269502 36499459