Mesoscale Discussion 0799
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019
Areas affected...Portions of far southeast Colorado into southwest
Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241...
Valid 252349Z - 260145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across portions of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 0241, particularly with storms northwest and east
of Dodge City, Kansas. By evening, boundary layer cooling and
widespread convective overturning of the atmosphere will temper the
severe threat.
DISCUSSION...An arc of relatively disorganized multicellular
convection, spanning from Finney County, to Edwards county in
Kansas, continues to propagate northward, with newer cells
developing ahead of the band in the Ness City, Kansas vicinity. With
up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear noted
across the area, any storm that can become sustained and
uncontaminated by the outflow of neighboring storms will have the
propensity to produce severe hail and damaging wind gusts.
Overall convective intensity however, has trended downward within
the past few hours, with an overall decrease in reflectivity and
absence of severe hail/wind reports noted. Much of the airmass is
already convectively overturned, and given that peak heating has
already occurred, the threat for severe wind/hail is expected to be
somewhat isolated for the remainder of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
0241, with a continued downward trend in overall convective
intensity expected.
..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/25/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 36900274 38950274 39579878 37549877 36900274
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