Mesoscale Discussion 0771
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0322 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of the Permian Basin into the Big Bend

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 242022Z - 242215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm coverage is likely to increase over the next couple
   of hours across southwest Texas. Severe hail/wind are the main
   threats, and a severe thunderstorm watch is possible.

   DISCUSSION...The Cu field has become increasingly agitated over
   southwest Texas into northern Mexico with storms beginning to fire
   along the dryline. A supercell already exists east of Fort Stockton
   that appears capable of 2"+ hail per MESH. As the thermal
   circulations along the dryline become deep enough to break the cap,
   isolated-scattered storms will develop in an environment
   characterized by 2000-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 35-45 knots of
   effective bulk shear per mesoanalysis. Much of the shear is
   unidirectional/speed shear and strong insolation has led to 2 km AGL
   cloud bases indicating the main threats are severe hail/wind. While
   more storms are expected to develop, the coverage may remain more
   isolated, which leads to uncertainty regarding a watch issuance.

   ..Nauslar/Dial.. 05/24/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   28940327 30190356 30660358 31440317 31490311 32440302
               32550259 32490143 32550075 32380036 31900027 31340038
               30700077 30140111 29770130 29590139 29700172 29680234
               29560256 29350271 29130283 28900306 28940327