Mesoscale Discussion 0670
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1247 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

   Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Oklahoma...southeastern
   Kansas into southwest through central Missouri and northwest
   Arkansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 182...

   Valid 181747Z - 181915Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 182 continues.

   SUMMARY...Potential for damaging wind gusts appears likely to
   continue to increase across northwest Arkansas and southwest into
   central Missouri through 3-4 PM CDT.  Trends are being monitored for
   the possibility of additional watches northeast and east of tornado
   watch 182.

   DISCUSSION...The northern flank of the extensive ongoing mesoscale
   convective system is maintaining strength, with extensive trailing
   stratiform precipitation also continuing to develop.  Activity
   appears embedded within 40+ kt southwesterly deep layer ambient mean
   flow, with enough of a perpendicular component to allow for a 30-35+
   kt northeastward progression.

   At the same time, boundary layer warming and moistening continue
   ahead of the squall line across much of Arkansas and Missouri, to
   the south a remnant stalling or perhaps slowly retreating outflow
   boundary now roughly near/south of the Interstate 70 corridor of
   central/western Missouri.  With additional insolation and
   strengthening of the convectively generated cold pool, there appears
   potential for the development and strengthening of a rear inflow jet
   which may support a continuing northeastward acceleration of the
   squall line through 20-21Z.  As this occurs, it will likely be
   accompanied by increasing potential for severe winds along the gust
   front, along with perhaps a few embedded mesovortices.

   ..Kerr.. 05/18/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

   LAT...LON   37399479 38449454 38749302 38339139 35779235 34919369
               35029444 35319482 37399479