Mesoscale Discussion 0585
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0629 AM CDT Wed May 08 2019

   Areas affected...Texas Hill Country into east-central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 081129Z - 081230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A new convective watch will likely need to be considered
   early this morning.  A mix of supercells and organized multicell
   clusters will be capable of a large hail/severe gust risk.  Any
   early-day tornado risk will likely remain focused with supercells
   along and south of an outflow boundary.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows an increase in thunderstorm activity
   over central TX during the past 2 hours as a lobe of upper forcing
   for ascent --associated with a shortwave trough over the southern
   High Plains-- continues eastward this morning.  KGRK and KEWX VAD
   data early this morning show some weakness around 3km AGL (near
   700mb).  RAP forecast soundings depict this feature but show flow
   strengthening from 20-30 kt as the upper wave approaches.  This
   strengthening in flow will support more favorable hodograph
   structure for more organized low-level mesocyclones.  It remains
   unclear the extent of the tornado risk through mid morning but by
   late morning as the aforementioned flow strengthens and greater
   buoyancy develops, a risk for a tornado in addition to large
   hail/severe gusts may develop along and south of the outflow
   boundary.

   Farther north approaching the I-20 corridor, rain-cooled air from
   early morning thunderstorms will probably limit greater
   destabilization from occurring.  Nonetheless, an isolated risk for
   strong to locally severe gusts and perhaps large hail may affect
   this corridor.

   ..Smith/Thompson.. 05/08/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31090026 31769976 32639642 32299566 31829545 31229547
               30599587 29509877 29779967 30160009 31090026