Mesoscale Discussion 0100
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0938 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of southern and eastern
   Alabama...west-central Georgia...and the western Florida panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 121538Z - 121745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A line of showers and thunderstorms continues to move east
   across Alabama into southeastern Mississippi and will pose a threat
   for marginal severe wind gusts and a brief tornado, but a Watch is
   not expected at this time.

   DISCUSSION...An extensive line of showers and a few thunderstorms
   continues to push eastward through the area this morning. Marginal
   positive buoyancy and shear vectors oriented at a small angle to the
   line have kept the convection somewhat disorganized and below severe
   limits the last few hours.  Some diurnal heating is ongoing through
   broken low-level stratus and a thin cirrus shield, bringing surface
   temperatures into the upper 60s in the northern part of the area and
   into the low 70s over the central and southern portions of the area.
    Although mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, this heating
   should allow for surface-based CAPE of 500-1250 J/kg as mid-60s
   dewpoints are advected northward through the area.  

   The increase in low-level buoyancy has allowed for some minor uptick
   in convective intensity within the line, particularly from
   Birmingham to Camden, where a weak mesoscale circulation could also
   contribute to further convective strengthening in the next few
   hours.  A few damaging winds and isolated severe gusts are possible
   with the more organized segments of the line.  Although the tornado
   threat remains low everywhere, the threat for a brief tornado is
   higher over the northern portion of the area where the 0-1-km shear
   continues to be 25-35 kt.  Overall, the threat for severe weather is
   low enough to preclude a Watch at this time, but trends will be
   monitored for additional convective strengthening in the next few
   hours.

   ..Coniglio/Hart.. 02/12/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   33628659 33778593 33838501 33728435 33408421 32968417
               32528426 32118439 31648464 31138497 30798519 30618534
               30498572 30478613 30528658 30628718 30688756 30858777
               31508758 32738705 33628659