Mesoscale Discussion 1619
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0733 PM CDT Sat Nov 03 2018

   Areas affected...South-central Oklahoma...Portions of north-central
   Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 040033Z - 040230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm coverage along a cold front will increase with the
   approach of a shortwave trough. Weak buoyancy should limit any
   threat to a few marginally severe wind gusts. No WW is expected.

   DISCUSSION...Convection along a cold front draped across central
   Oklahoma and North Texas has increased over the last hour per
   regional radar mosaic. With the approach of shortwave trough, now
   over the South Plains of Texas, coverage will likely increase by
   01-02Z. Per 00Z FWD sounding, 35-45 kts of effective shear exists
   across the boundary, however, instability is a meager 183 J/kg of
   SBCAPE. While cooling aloft may lead to a modest increase in
   instability, overall threat should be limited to a few marginally
   severe wind gusts at best. A WW is unlikely.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 11/04/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34239720 34469676 34349615 33889610 32159670 31499731
               31289815 32079829 32709805 34239720