ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 222012 
SPC MCD 222012 
NMZ000-AZZ000-222115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1590
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona and Far Southwest New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 222012Z - 222115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may develop in the next few hours
capable of producing large hail and gusty winds.

DISCUSSION...Diabatic heating has led to the development of an
instability axis extending across portions of southeastern AZ and
far southwest NM, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper
50s F and resulting MLCAPE values are approaching 1000-1500 J/kg.
The latest satellite observations show cumulus developing primarily
along favorable localized terrain features. Should this trend
continue (despite weak upper-level forcing for ascent), a few
isolated storms may develop and become organized in the presence of
effective bulk shear in the 30-40 kt range. Large hail and some
localized wind gusts are possible.

..Karstens/Dial.. 10/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   31371086 32271143 33261152 33721081 33460955 33180866
            32420809 31810827 31350865 31371086 

NNNN