Mesoscale Discussion 1396
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0110 AM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

   Areas affected...Southeast NE...Northeast KS...Northwest
   MO...Western/Central IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 310610Z - 310845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail is possible with elevated convection
   overnight.

   DISCUSSION...ACCAS field over southeast NE/northeast KS has recently
   blossomed into deep convection. Steep midlevel lapse rates noted on
   area 00Z soundings are supporting moderate elevated instability
   across the region, with MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg noted per recent
   mesoanalyses. Most CAM guidance suggests elevated convection will
   increase in coverage across western/central IA later tonight (around
   08-09Z). While the timing is somewhat uncertain, an increase in
   convection with time appears plausible as a relatively strong
   low-level jet remains focused into the area and the plume of steep
   midlevel lapse rates is maintained from the west. 

   Midlevel flow is sufficient for effective shear of 30-40 kt for
   convection rooted around 800 mb, which will support at least
   transient updraft organization with a potential for severe hail.
   Most CAM guidance suggests a dominant cluster mode, which would be
   somewhat unfavorable for a more organized hail threat, and watch
   issuance is currently considered unlikely. However, if a trend
   toward more long-lived discrete modes is observed overnight, then
   the watch potential will be reconsidered.

   ..Dean/Edwards.. 08/31/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   39299587 40219646 42129597 43469502 43419401 43099341
               42379306 41409315 40489358 39589416 39139478 39079532
               39299587