ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 291922 
SPC MCD 291922 
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-OKZ000-292145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1390
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018

Areas affected...Central Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 291922Z - 292145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary threat with
the stronger storms. A WW issuance is not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...Several disorganized cells have recently intensified
and congealed along the leading edge of a cold pool, remnant from
earlier organized convection. The intensification/congealment of
these cells, roughly located along a line from ARG, to BVX and ASG,
may assist in reinforcing the cold pool, with the southward
propagation of a loosely organized convective cluster possible. 

Flow throughout the troposphere is very weak across the discussion
area, with relatively deep-moisture extending up to around 700 mb
(as noted by RAP forecast soundings), contributing to a strongly
unstable environment (i.e 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). As such, stronger
updrafts will have the propensity to generate more intense water
loading and resultant strong outflow, with damaging wind gusts
possible. 

Still, severe gusts are expected to be isolated and as such, a WW
issuance is not expected at this time.

..Squitieri/Dial.. 08/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON   36459463 36079347 36079194 36349095 36438995 35918958
            35208996 34479047 34419059 34189226 34609371 35619443
            36459463 

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