ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 192247 
SPC MCD 192247 
ARZ000-MOZ000-200045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1324
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Areas affected...southwest Missouri into northern Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 343...

Valid 192247Z - 200045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 343 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat of damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes
continues across the watch area.

DISCUSSION...Storms continued to develop across southwest MO and
northwest AR, ahead of a weak surface low and near a diffuse warm
front. The latest surface analysis indicates 2 hr pressure falls in
excess of 2 mb, associated primarily with low-level warm air
advection. Hodograph size on the SGF VAD wind profile has gradually
been increasing, now with 0-1 SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2. This trend
may persist over the next couple hours, coincident with an increase
in the 850 mb flow. As such, the north-south oriented line of storms
that moved out of KS into MO is becoming more of a QLCS with swaths
of damaging wind and/or brief tornadoes possible.

To the south and closer to the warm front, cells over AR are more
robust overall in terms of being instability driven with hail cores 
evident on radar. Low-level shear is not as strong as farther north,
but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with this activity.

..Jewell.. 08/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   35269249 35139403 35339419 35719416 36199421 36599432
            37009432 37419435 37839434 38139256 38129247 37799186
            37389149 36779125 36089124 35589154 35389189 35269249 

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