ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 132152 
SPC MCD 132152 
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-132345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018

Areas affected...Southeast OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 132152Z - 132345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado and locally damaging winds are still
possible with a cluster of storms gradually progressing east along
the Red River in southeast OK.

DISCUSSION...The meteorological environment has not changed much as
described in MCD 1282, with the risk for a brief tornado and locally
damaging winds gradually shifting east across southeast OK. As of
2145Z, leading edge of a storm cluster extends from Pontotoc County
OK to Fannin County TX. Remnant outflow boundary/effective warm
front lies west/east along the Red River into southwest AR. Light
east/southeast surface winds north of this boundary beneath around
40-kt 850-700 mb south/southwesterlies is likely yielding low-level
shear adequate for a brief tornado and embedded wet microbursts amid
2-2.25" precipitable water values. While this risk is below the
threshold for warranting a watch, this marginally supportive
environment for a couple severe storms may persist through about
01-02Z.

..Grams.. 08/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34809655 35009611 35109575 35119513 34889461 34529442
            34069451 33859471 33689555 33709613 33859609 34399610
            34809655 

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