ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 080802 
SPC MCD 080802 
OKZ000-080930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 AM CDT Wed Aug 08 2018

Areas affected...Portions of western/central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 080802Z - 080930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated instances of marginally severe hail and gusty
winds will be possible through sunrise. Watch issuance is not
expected, though.

DISCUSSION...Modest, but increasing warm advection around 850-700mb
is aiding the development of scattered thunderstorms across parts of
northwest and central Oklahoma early this morning. These updrafts
are likely rooted above a low-level dry layer observed in the 00Z
OUN sounding. As such, isolated hail may be the primary threat with
any stronger cores this morning, given sufficient elevated CAPE and
brisk upper-level west/northwesterly flow. Pockets of gusty winds
(capable of localized wind damage) may be possible as well, owing to
residual steep lapse rates atop a shallow surface stable layer.
Rather weak flow is noted around 5-6 km AGL on recent KTLX VWP data,
though. Therefore, stronger cores should remain transient in nature,
limiting the overall severe threat.

..Picca/Edwards.. 08/08/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   34359786 34969894 36199978 36759994 36969980 36979860
            35909711 35389607 35079561 34679559 34229610 34229680
            34359786 

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