ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 120158 
SPC MCD 120158 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-120400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1040
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0858 PM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

Areas affected...Southeastern North Dakota...portions of
central/northern Minnesota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 271...

Valid 120158Z - 120400Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 271 continues.

SUMMARY...Storm coverage is beginning to increase within WW 271. A
tornado threat will exist for the next few hours. Storms are
expected to grow upscale where the main threats will become large
hail and damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Storms have begun to form along the cold front from
Lake of the Woods County, MN to Mahnomen County, MN. Elsewhere along
the cold front, agitated cumulus has been increasing per 1-minute
GOES meso-sector visible imagery. While storms have struggled to
mature thus far, an increase in the low-level jet evident on the
KDLH VAD profile has enlarged the hodograph through 3 km and
effective deep-layer shear of 35-40 kts suggests better organization
is still possible. With effective SRH of 300-400 m2/s2, the
environment remains favorable for tornado development with any
discrete storms. The main limiting factors for tornadoes are the
generally narrow warm sector -- where MLCAPE values are generally
2500-3000 -- and an expected increase in storm coverage with the
continued strengthening of the low-level jet. Though the tornado
threat is more conditional, large hail and severe wind gusts can
also be expected.

..Wendt.. 07/12/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON   45759600 45759604 45759624 45929720 46399705 47029645
            47819569 48489525 48749485 48909435 48629308 47719305
            47109305 46339304 46159304 45759576 45759586 45759600 

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