Mesoscale Discussion 1026
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0722 PM CDT Mon Jul 09 2018

   Areas affected...Southeastern Montana...portions of western South
   Dakota...northeast Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 100022Z - 100215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will pose a threat for severe wind gusts and
   perhaps an isolated instance of severe hail over the next hour or
   two. A WW is not expected at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have formed in northeastern Wyoming and have
   shown modest intensification coincident with peak afternoon heating.
   While shear in northeastern Wyoming is sufficient for storm
   organization -- with 30-35 kts of effective shear -- relatively weak
   mid-level lapse rates has limited buoyancy to 1500-2000 J/kg.
   Farther to the east near the Black Hills, better moisture and
   instability reside across a stationary surface boundary. Given weak
   steering flow for these storms, uncertainty exists with regard
   whether these storms will be able to progress far enough east to tap
   into a more favorable airmass. In the meantime, the greatest threat
   from these storms will be severe wind gusts given the steep
   low-level lapse rates. An isolated instance of severe hail cannot be
   ruled out given the marginally favorable wind profile. With the
   expected isolated nature and short duration of the threat, a WW is
   not anticipated. If cold pools can congeal, a more organized wind
   threat could evolve. Convective trends will continue to be
   monitored.

   ..Wendt/Broyles.. 07/10/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   44450725 45450585 45280337 44630276 43710284 43110330
               43040435 43020661 43780721 44450725