ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 261301 
SPC MCD 261301 
KSZ000-261500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0885
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Areas affected...central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 261301Z - 261500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolate late hail threat may transition to an isolated
wind threat later this morning. The area will be monitored for a
potential watch.

DISCUSSION...This morning's 12Z DDC sounding shows mid-level lapse
rate on the order of 7.5 C/km, with the maximum 2-6 km lapse rate on
the nearing 9 C/km. This, coupled with warm-air advection in the
850-700 millibar layer has contributed to elevated thunderstorms
across western portions of central Kansas. The environment these
thunderstorms are developing in has most-unstable CAPE values
between 1000-2000 J/kg and deep-layer shear on the order of 30-40
knots. As such, these thunderstorms should be capable of posing a
hail threat in the near-term.

Later this morning, as insolation mixes out the nocturnal boundary
layer, steepening low-level lapse rates should increase the
potential for strong thunderstorm outflow. A watch may become
necessary later this morning.

..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   37820011 38960024 39219936 38959678 37919633 37349719
            37820011 

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