Mesoscale Discussion 0860
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0304 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of the southern High Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 242004Z - 242130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop southward along the
   higher terrain of Colorado and then move east/southeast over the
   High Plains into this evening. While the spatial extent of any
   severe threat is uncertain, a few storms may be accompanied by large
   hail and damaging winds. A watch could be needed by late afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Considerable uncertainty remains due to the influence
   of processed low-level air behind a convective system now over
   Oklahoma. Still, convection appears to gradually be organizing over
   the higher terrain of southern Colorado, aided by a shortwave trough
   pivoting southeast over the region. Further heating to the east and
   slow moistening/cooling aloft in association with the trough may be
   adequate to drive isolated severe convection moving east/southeast
   over the High Plains into this evening. Deep-layer profiles favor
   supercells, and 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates suggest large hail
   would be the predominant threat. Although this threat is conditional
   (and perhaps limited in eastward extent due to prior
   convective/outflow influence), it could necessitate a Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch.

   ..Picca/Thompson.. 06/24/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36630486 36890508 37940513 38480496 38470404 38430264
               37900221 37320213 36870217 36480238 36460402 36630486