ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 201859 
SPC MCD 201859 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-202100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0804
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 201859Z - 202100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop across eastern North
Carolina through the afternoon. Strong wind gusts as the primary
threat.

DISCUSSION...A surface boundary is oriented north to south across
central North Carolina and should be a focus for convective
initiation throughout the afternoon. Additionally, strong diabatic
heating has pushed surface temperatures into the 90s and ample
moisture (surface dewpoints in the 70s) should allow for widespread
breaching of convective temperatures across the area.
Moderate-strong buoyancy (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) should support
vigorous updrafts, but weak flow aloft/shear will limit widespread
organization. Storms should track eastward and eventually encounter
thunderstorms initiated by the sea breeze. Hail is possible, but
strong wind gusts are the primary threat especially as the low-level
lapse rates steepen during max daytime heating.

..Nauslar/Dial.. 06/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON   33917847 33857885 34567945 35137966 35837953 36517907
            36547773 36527658 36467608 35437633 34697710 34217790
            33917847 

NNNN