ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 132331 
SPC MCD 132331 
NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-140100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0727
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018

Areas affected...Parts of the central and southern high Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 132331Z - 140100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some intensification to widely scattered thunderstorm
development still appears possible into and through the 7-9 PM MDT
time frame.  Some of this may be accompanied by a risk for severe
hail and strong surface gusts, but the overall threat is generally
not expected to require a severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...Initial thunderstorm development off the Colorado and
northern New Mexico Rockies has likely been suppressed by generally
weak shear and perhaps marginal instability.  However, a light
westerly deep layer mean flow will continue to aid eastward
propagation into the high Plains of Colorado, and along the southern
slopes of the Raton Mesa, where modest but increasing low-level
moisture is supporting at least somewhat larger CAPE.  20+ kt
southerly low-level flow east of the higher terrain is also
contributing to deep layer shear more favorable to convective
organization, and boundary layer decoupling may result in low-level
jet strengthening to 30-40+ kt by late evening.  Thus, there appears
at least a window of opportunity for some increase in thunderstorms
with a risk for severe hail and strong wind gusts, before activity
diminishes in waning boundary layer instability later this evening.

..Kerr/Weiss.. 06/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36140470 36720443 37370393 38670304 39250266 40330261
            40840226 40750111 39590129 37180194 35930322 35400463
            36140470 

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