ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 060640 
SPC MCD 060640 
TXZ000-060845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0650
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Wed Jun 06 2018

Areas affected...North-central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 060640Z - 060845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail is possible across north-central TX during the
next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm initiated quickly across northwest
Collin county and recently underwent a storm split, with both splits
likely currently producing severe hail. Deep moisture (i.e. 15.8
g/kg 100-mb mean mixing-ratio on the 00Z FWD sounding) and steep
mid-level lapse rates currently support moderate to strong
instability across the region. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MUCAPE
is currently around 3000 J/kg. Additionally, recent KFWS VAD shows a
vertically veering wind profile with 0-3 km SRH over 450 m2/s2 and
0-6 km bulk shear over 45 kt. Even greater SRH is likely being
realized by the southwestward moving storm. These factors, coupled
with favorable warm-air advection aided inflow, will likely support
storm maintenance for the next few hours. Given the elevated
character of the storms, the primary severe threat is large hail.
Isolated instances of very large hail (i.e. greater than 2 inches in
diameter) cannot be ruled out.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

LAT...LON   32879755 33279708 33369663 33349626 33129603 32519632
            32089689 32079762 32879755 

NNNN