ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 050014 
SPC MCD 050014 
NDZ000-MTZ000-050245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0644
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 PM CDT Mon Jun 04 2018

Areas affected...Central/Eastern MT...Extreme western ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 050014Z - 050245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated severe hail and wind will persist
into at least mid-evening. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...At 00Z, a supercell is ongoing across Musselshell
County MT, with weaker convection further north approaching the
Glasgow area. Moderate instability and effective shear of 35-45 kt
(as noted on the 00Z GGW sounding) will continue to support the
potential for organized structures, with a short-term severe hail
risk likely to persist with the ongoing supercell.  Some
strengthening is possible with the convection further north
approaching northeast MT as ongoing clusters move into a somewhat
more moist and unstable airmass, though increasing CINH with time
will limit the temporal window for significant intensification. 

Some upscale growth is possible as cold pools consolidate this
evening, with an accompanying risk of isolated severe wind gusts,
though with only a weak low-level jet response expected, any such
development should remain relatively disorganized. The severe threat
across this region is expected to be too marginal for watch
issuance.

..Dean/Grams.. 06/05/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   46130781 46330895 46860903 47740934 48980693 49030403
            48450380 47250379 46600399 46380542 46130781 

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