ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 032049 SPC MCD 032049 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-032145- Mesoscale Discussion 0635 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sun Jun 03 2018 Areas affected...Southeast Texas...southern and central Louisiana...southern and central Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032049Z - 032145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...One persistent cluster of storms continues across central Louisiana, while other scattered development continues along a cold front near/south of the I-20 corridor from east Texas to Mississippi. A WW is not currently expected with this activity, although isolated damaging wind gusts and hail are possible with convection across the area through this evening. DISCUSSION...A persistent, yet mostly sub-severe cluster of storms continues to expand across central Louisiana near/southeast of POE currently. Other, more isolated thunderstorms have recently developed in east-central Texas (near LFK) and in central Mississippi (around 40 miles south of JAN). Another slowly southward-moving cluster was located near MEI. These storms were all within a weakly capped, yet strongly unstable environment, with MUCAPE values exceeding 4000 J/kg along and and south of the front. Additional convective development is anticipated through the afternoon - especially near and west of ongoing convective clusters where expanding near-surface cold pools will help force ascent and overcome the lingering capping across the area. Lightly northerly mid-level flow will aid in a south-southwestward propagation of ongoing clusters through the evening. Damaging wind gusts and a few instances of large hail will be likely near any storm given the magnitude of instability. Given recent trends and the isolated nature of the severe threat, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not expected but cannot be completely ruled out - particularly in southwestern Louisiana and far southeast Texas if the ongoing cluster exhibits greater upscale growth and severity than currently anticipated. ..Cook/Guyer.. 06/03/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 31079575 31349521 31319461 31359353 31459240 31699094 32168940 32168873 31798852 31008844 30588870 29828979 29419039 29419118 29449150 29289264 29109464 29269515 30029559 31079575 NNNN