ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 292010 
SPC MCD 292010 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-292145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0567
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Far southwest Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 292010Z - 292145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms with mainly hail and wind
threats are possible this afternoon. A WW is currently not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Multicell clusters and small line segments are moving
slowly southeastward across the Colorado Front Range and Nebraska
Panhandle, where MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg are present. While
current bulk shear values suggest that convective organization will
be inhibited to a degree, steep (7-8 C/km) lapse rates atop a
relatively moist boundary layer suggest that a few 1+ inch
hailstones may be possible with more persistent updrafts. Isolated
damaging gusts may be possible with any linear segments that can
manage to organize.

Isolated severe will remain possible for the rest of the afternoon
as continued insolation will contribute to maintaining the
instability axis across the discussion area through the rest of the
diurnal cycle. Given the expected isolated and marginal nature of
the severe threat, a WW issuance is not currently expected.

..Squitieri/Cook/Hart.. 05/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39080473 39190444 39390427 39680399 40010386 40280373
            40590361 40980342 41340302 41640234 41650183 41180154
            40770152 40440155 39770166 39360195 38890243 38630317
            38550389 38640464 38840480 39080473 

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