ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 172139 
SPC MCD 172139 
TXZ000-NMZ000-172245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0443
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Areas affected...Permian Basin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 172139Z - 172245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible through
the evening.  A severe thunderstorm watch may need to be considered
shortly if it will be issued.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows strong to severe thunderstorms in a
north-south broken band in the vicinity of the dryline over the
Permian Basin and extending southward into the TX Big Bend. 
Temperatures range through the 90s degrees F and dewpoints are near
50 F.  As a result, large temperature/dewpoint spreads and a
deep/very well mixed boundary layer will promote the development of
strong to severe gusts near the stronger cores.  0-6 km shear 30-40
kt will favor organized storm structures, including supercells
capable of large hail.  The 8.9 degree C per km 700-500 mb lapse
rate on this morning's sounding from MAF will favor storm longevity
through the early evening.  Given the storm coverage expected and
the storm organizational potential, a severe thunderstorm watch may
need to be considered shortly.

..Smith/Hart.. 05/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30290275 31720360 32920303 32940102 30600112 30250204
            30290275 

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